WSG Tirol v Sturm Graz 
1X2 · WSG TirolModel behind market recent
Market
3.40
price
29.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.75
fair price
26.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 27%model 45%
Model divergence +18.3 pts
Edge vs fair -9.2%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
WSG Tirol
45%
Draw
29%
Sturm Graz
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 27% / 26% / 47%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices WSG Tirol 45% against the market’s fair 27% — a +18.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): WSG Tirol 29% · Sturm Graz 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSG Tirol | 45.0% | 3.75 | 3.40 | -9.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.83 | 3.50 | -8.7% |
| Sturm Graz | 26.1% | 2.12 | 2.02 | -4.9% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | WSG Tirol | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2.02 |
| Sky Bet | 3.10 | 3.25 | 1.91 |
| BoyleSports | 3.10 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Coral | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| 888sport | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.56 / 3.64 / 2.02 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · WSG Tirol — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — WSG TirolFair line (devig) — WSG Tirol
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
WSG Tirol
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Sturm GrazW
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 4-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Austrian Football Bundesliga fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do WSG Tirol play Sturm Graz?
Kick-off is Sat 1 Aug, 16:00 UK time in the Austrian Football Bundesliga.
What does the model expect for WSG Tirol v Sturm Graz?
The statistical model prices WSG Tirol at 45%, the draw at 29% and Sturm Graz at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for WSG Tirol v Sturm Graz?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.75 / 3.83 / 2.12 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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