LASK v Grazer AK
1X2 · LASKModel behind market recent
Market
1.67
price
59.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.75
fair price
57.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 57%model 45%
Model divergence -12.1 pts
Edge vs fair -4.6%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
LASK
45%
Draw
29%
Grazer AK
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 57% / 24% / 19%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices LASK 45% against the market’s fair 57% — a -12.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): LASK 29% · Grazer AK 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LASK | 45.0% | 1.75 | 1.67 | -4.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.22 | 4.00 | -5.2% |
| Grazer AK | 26.1% | 5.21 | 5.10 | -2.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | LASK | Draw | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| Sky Bet | 1.57 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| BoyleSports | 1.53 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Coral | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.66 / 3.99 / 4.93 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · LASK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LASKFair line (devig) — LASK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
LASK
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Grazer AK
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v SV Kapfenberg | 1-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Austrian Football Bundesliga fixtures
WSG Tirol v Sturm GrazRB Salzburg v HartbergAustria Lustenau v RiedWolfsberger AC v Austria WienRapid Wien v Rheindorf Altach
Frequently asked questions
When do LASK play Grazer AK?
Kick-off is Fri 31 Jul, 18:30 UK time in the Austrian Football Bundesliga.
What does the model expect for LASK v Grazer AK?
The statistical model prices LASK at 45%, the draw at 29% and Grazer AK at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for LASK v Grazer AK?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.75 / 4.22 / 5.21 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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