LASK v Grazer AK PREDICTION
BUN Fri 31 Jul, 18:30 UK · in 17d
1X2 · LASKModel behind market recent
Market
1.67
price
59.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.75
fair price
57.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 57%model 45%
Model divergence -12.1 pts
Edge vs fair -4.6%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
LASK
45%
Draw
29%
Grazer AK
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 57% / 24% / 19%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices LASK 45% against the market’s fair 57% — a -12.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): LASK 29% · Grazer AK 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Austrian Football Bundesliga fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do LASK play Grazer AK?
Kick-off is Fri 31 Jul, 18:30 UK time in the Austrian Football Bundesliga.
What does the model expect for LASK v Grazer AK?
The statistical model prices LASK at 45%, the draw at 29% and Grazer AK at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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