RB Salzburg v Hartberg
1X2 · RB SalzburgModel behind market recent
Market
1.37
price
73.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.45
fair price
68.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 69%model 45%
Model divergence -23.9 pts
Edge vs fair -5.6%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
RB Salzburg
45%
Draw
29%
Hartberg
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 69% / 18% / 13%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices RB Salzburg 45% against the market’s fair 69% — a -23.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): RB Salzburg 29% · Hartberg 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Salzburg | 45.0% | 1.45 | 1.37 | -5.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 5.46 | 4.75 | -13.1% |
| Hartberg | 26.1% | 7.81 | 7.00 | -10.4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | RB Salzburg | Draw | Hartberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.37 | 3.95 | 1.09 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.30 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Coral | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| 888sport | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.35 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.37 / 5.16 / 7.35 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · RB Salzburg — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — RB SalzburgFair line (devig) — RB Salzburg
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
RB Salzburg
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Hartberg
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do RB Salzburg play Hartberg?
Kick-off is Sat 1 Aug, 18:30 UK time in the Austrian Football Bundesliga.
What does the model expect for RB Salzburg v Hartberg?
The statistical model prices RB Salzburg at 45%, the draw at 29% and Hartberg at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for RB Salzburg v Hartberg?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.45 / 5.46 / 7.81 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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