RB Salzburg v Hartberg PREDICTION
BUN Sat 1 Aug, 18:30 UK · in 18d
1X2 · RB SalzburgModel behind market recent
Market
1.37
price
73.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.45
fair price
68.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 69%model 45%
Model divergence -23.9 pts
Edge vs fair -5.6%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
RB Salzburg
45%
Draw
29%
Hartberg
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 69% / 18% / 13%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices RB Salzburg 45% against the market’s fair 69% — a -23.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): RB Salzburg 29% · Hartberg 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Austrian Football Bundesliga fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do RB Salzburg play Hartberg?
Kick-off is Sat 1 Aug, 18:30 UK time in the Austrian Football Bundesliga.
What does the model expect for RB Salzburg v Hartberg?
The statistical model prices RB Salzburg at 45%, the draw at 29% and Hartberg at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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