Austria Lustenau v Ried
1X2 · Austria LustenauModel behind market recent
Market
2.70
price
37.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.88
fair price
34.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 35%model 45%
Model divergence +10.3 pts
Edge vs fair -6.3%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
Austria Lustenau
45%
Draw
29%
Ried
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 35% / 29% / 36%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Austria Lustenau 45% against the market’s fair 35% — a +10.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Austria Lustenau 30% · Ried 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Lustenau | 45.0% | 2.88 | 2.70 | -6.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.46 | 3.25 | -6.1% |
| Ried | 26.1% | 2.75 | 2.58 | -6.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Austria Lustenau | Draw | Ried |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.70 | 2.94 | 2.58 |
| Sky Bet | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| BoyleSports | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Coral | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| 888sport | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.75 / 3.30 / 2.62 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Austria Lustenau — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Austria LustenauFair line (devig) — Austria Lustenau
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Austria LustenauNo archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Ried
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Austrian Football Bundesliga fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Austria Lustenau play Ried?
Kick-off is Sun 2 Aug, 16:00 UK time in the Austrian Football Bundesliga.
What does the model expect for Austria Lustenau v Ried?
The statistical model prices Austria Lustenau at 45%, the draw at 29% and Ried at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Austria Lustenau v Ried?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.88 / 3.46 / 2.75 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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