WSG Tirol v Sturm Graz 
PREDICTION
BUN Sat 1 Aug, 16:00 UK · in 18d
1X2 · WSG TirolModel behind market recent
Market
3.40
price
29.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.75
fair price
26.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 27%model 45%
Model divergence +18.3 pts
Edge vs fair -9.2%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
WSG Tirol
45%
Draw
29%
Sturm Graz
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 27% / 26% / 47%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices WSG Tirol 45% against the market’s fair 27% — a +18.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): WSG Tirol 29% · Sturm Graz 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Austrian Football Bundesliga fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do WSG Tirol play Sturm Graz?
Kick-off is Sat 1 Aug, 16:00 UK time in the Austrian Football Bundesliga.
What does the model expect for WSG Tirol v Sturm Graz?
The statistical model prices WSG Tirol at 45%, the draw at 29% and Sturm Graz at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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