L

Lille

Ligue 1 - France·3 of 18 in the table·14 points·Decathlon Arena Pierre-Mauroy

Next match Lille v RC Lens Fri 30 Oct, 20:05

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Lille — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

76

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.9%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

4th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Fri 30 Oct20:05 RC Lens H — 2.48Betfair Exchange — Tue 3 Nov20:00 Bodø/Glimt A — 3.80Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 6

DDWLWW 11 pts from 6

A Monaco 1–1 +0.1

H Stade Brestois 29 1–1 -1.0

H Le Havre 1–0 +0.9

A Nice 1–2 -1.2

H Estac Troyes 2–0 +0.8

A Toulouse 1–0 +1.6

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

+3.8 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals conceded 0.75 #1 of 18

Clean sheets 4 #2 of 18

Points over model expectation 3.8 #4 of 18

Shots on target 5 #6 of 18

Weaknesses

Expected goals for 1.24 #13 of 18

Shots faced 15.6 #14 of 18

Shots 11.3 #16 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.38 #11 of 18

Expected goals 1.24 #13 of 18

Shots 11.3 #16 of 18

On target 5 #6 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 0.75 #1 of 18

Expected against 1.54 #10 of 18

Shots faced 15.6 #14 of 18

Clean sheets 4 #2 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

58%

Scored before half time

of 12 goals

25%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 12 goals

8%

From the penalty spot

of 12 goals

40%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 5 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (17 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

L1 Ligue 1 - France 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#3

Position

14

Points from 7 played

+5

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
1	Lyon	7	8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	5	14
3	Lille	7	5	14
4	Paris FC	8	4	14
5	Monaco	7	4	14

Lille and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Fri 30 Oct20:05in 4d
   Lille RC Lens

   L1

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Tue 3 Nov20:00in 8d
   Bodø/Glimt Lille

   UCL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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