NF

Nottingham Forest

EPL·16 of 20 in the table·2 points·The City Ground

Next match Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Sat 12 Sept, 15:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Nottingham Forest — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming3 Results held

Model Strength

71

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

Not enough data

this club has no priced fixtures in the stored competition

Fixtures Analysed

3

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sat 12 Sept15:00 Aston Villa A — 3.35Betfair Exchange — Sat 19 Sept17:30 Coventry City H — 1.81Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 3

DDL 2 pts from 3

H Tottenham 0–0 -0.3

A Liverpool 2–2 —

H Leeds 0–1 -1.5

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (3 matches) Model expected (3 priced) Ahead Behind

-0.8 points against the model's expectation over the 3 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Clean sheets 1 #5 of 20

Weaknesses

Possession 42.7% #14 of 20

Goals scored 0.67 #17 of 20

Shots on target 2.3 #19 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 0.67 #17 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots 12 #13 of 20

On target 2.3 #19 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1 #8 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced 12 #8 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #5 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

50%

Scored before half time

of 2 goals

0%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 2 goals

50%

From the penalty spot

of 2 goals

67%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 3 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 3 stored fixtures (5 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#16

Position

2

Points from 3 played

-1

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
14	Ipswich	3	-4	3
15	Bournemouth	3	-1	2
16	Nottingham Forest	3	-1	2
17	Aston Villa	3	-5	1
18	Tottenham	3	-5	1

Nottingham Forest and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 12 Sept15:00in 19h 26m
   Aston Villa Nottingham Forest

   EPL

   Regular Season - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 19 Sept17:30in 8d
   Nottingham Forest Coventry City

   EPL

   Regular Season - 5
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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