NF

Nottingham Forest

EPL·18 of 20 in the table·6 points·The City Ground

Next match Brentford v Nottingham Forest Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Nottingham Forest — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

69.6

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.2%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

14th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Sat 31 Oct15:00 Brentford A — 3.85Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 6

DLLLWD 5 pts from 6

A Ipswich 1–1 -0.1

H Arsenal 0–1 -0.9

A Crystal Palace 1–3 -1.1

H Coventry 0–1 -1.7

A Aston Villa 2–1 +2.0

H Tottenham 0–0 -0.3

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

-2.6 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Shots faced 10.3 #1 of 20

Expected goals against 1.12 #3 of 20

Shots 17.1 #3 of 20

Expected goals for 1.69 #7 of 20

Weaknesses

Shots on target 3.8 #16 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #17 of 20

Points over model expectation -2.6 #18 of 20

Goals scored 0.75 #20 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 0.75 #20 of 20

Expected goals 1.69 #7 of 20

Shots 17.1 #3 of 20

On target 3.8 #16 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.25 #9 of 20

Expected against 1.12 #3 of 20

Shots faced 10.3 #1 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #17 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

50%

Scored before half time

of 6 goals

17%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 6 goals

17%

From the penalty spot

of 6 goals

30%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 10 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (16 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EPL EPL 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

#18

Position

6

Points from 8 played

-4

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
16	Crystal Palace	7	-8	7
17	Bournemouth	7	-4	6
18	Nottingham Forest	8	-4	6
19	Coventry	8	-9	6
20	Sunderland	7	-8	4

Nottingham Forest and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 31 Oct15:00in 5d
   Brentford Nottingham Forest

   EPL

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Season statistics (stored · 2026)

Squad (stored · 2026 · 29 players)

Player	Age	No.
Goalkeepers (5)
KKeehan Willows	20	1
AAaron Bott	21	12
JJohn	29	12
SS. Benda	27	13
MM. Sels	33	26
Defenders (6)
OO. Diomande	22	2
MMurillo	23	5
JJair	20	23
LL. Netz	22	25
NN. Milenković	28	31
OO. Aina	29	34
Midfielders (12)
NN. Williams	24	3
II. Sangaré	28	6
AA. Whitehall	19	8
NN. Domínguez	27	8
MM. Gibbs-White	25	10
DD. Ndoye	25	14
JJ. Sinclair	19	14
XX. Schlager	28	21
RR. Yates	28	22
JJ. McAtee	23	24
DD. Muñoz	29	27
GGrady Mcdonnell	17	49
Forwards (6)
CC. Hudson-Odoi	25	7
CC. Wood	34	9
IIgor Jesus	24	11
AA. Kalimuendo	23	15
ZZyan Blake	18	17
LL. Delap	22	19

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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