RM

Real Madrid

La Liga - Spain·3 of 20 in the table·21 points·Santiago Bernabéu

Next match Bayern Munich v Real Madrid Wed 28 Oct, 17:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Real Madrid — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming10 Results held

Model Strength

84

Elite

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

2nd

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

10

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Wed 28 Oct17:45 Bayern Munich A — 4.40Paddy Power — Sun 1 Nov15:15 Real Racing Club de Santander A — 1.30Coral — Wed 4 Nov17:45 AEK Athens A — 1.35Ladbrokes —

Form

last 6

WWWLWW 15 pts from 6

A Barcelona 2–1 +2.1

H Sevilla 4–1 +0.7

H Villarreal 1–0 +0.8

A Atletico Madrid 1–2 -1.3

A Elche 3–2 +0.9

H Rayo Vallecano 4–1 +0.4

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (10 matches) Model expected (10 priced) Ahead Behind

+6.5 points against the model's expectation over the 10 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Expected goals against 0.84 #1 of 20

Goals scored 2.5 #2 of 20

Expected goals for 2.25 #2 of 20

Shots on target 6.9 #2 of 20

Weaknesses

Clean sheets 2 #14 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.5 #2 of 20

Expected goals 2.25 #2 of 20

Shots 16.6 #3 of 20

On target 6.9 #2 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1 #4 of 20

Expected against 0.84 #1 of 20

Shots faced 13.2 #7 of 20

Clean sheets 2 #14 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

46%

Scored before half time

of 24 goals

38%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 24 goals

13%

From the penalty spot

of 24 goals

25%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 12 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 10 stored fixtures (36 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

LAL La Liga - Spain 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#3

Position

21

Points from 9 played

+14

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	12	25
3	Real Madrid	9	14	21
4	Real Betis	9	2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16

Real Madrid and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct17:45in 37h 37m
   Bayern Munich Real Madrid

   UCL

   League Stage - 3
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sun 1 Nov15:15in 5d
   Real Racing Club de Santander Real Madrid

   LAL

   Regular Season - 11
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Wed 4 Nov17:45in 9d
   AEK Athens Real Madrid

   UCL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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