RM

Real Madrid

La Liga - Spain·3 of 20 in the table·9 points·Santiago Bernabéu

Next match Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano Sat 12 Sept, 20:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Real Madrid — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming4 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.3%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

4th

of 19 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

4

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sat 12 Sept20:00 Rayo Vallecano H — 1.13Smarkets — Tue 15 Sept20:30 Elche CF A — 1.30William Hill —

Form

last 4

LWWW 9 pts from 4

A Real Betis 0–1 -1.8

H Malaga 4–0 —

H Real Sociedad 4–1 +0.6

A Espanyol 2–1 +1.2

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (4 matches) Model expected (4 priced) Ahead Behind

+3.0 points against the model's expectation over the 4 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Expected goals for 2.73 #2 of 16

Shots 19.5 #2 of 20

Shots on target 8.5 #2 of 20

Goals scored 2.5 #3 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.5 #3 of 20

Expected goals 2.73 #2 of 16

Shots 19.5 #2 of 20

On target 8.5 #2 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 0.75 #3 of 20

Expected against 0.76 #4 of 16

Shots faced 10.3 #4 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #12 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

40%

Scored before half time

of 10 goals

40%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 10 goals

10%

From the penalty spot

of 10 goals

25%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 4 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 4 stored fixtures (14 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

LAL La Liga - Spain 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#3

Position

9

Points from 4 played

+7

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	4	15	12
2	Alaves	4	7	10
3	Real Madrid	4	7	9
4	Real Betis	4	0	9
5	Deportivo La Coruna	4	3	8

Real Madrid and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 12 Sept20:00in 24h 24m
   Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano

   LAL

   Regular Season - 5
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Tue 15 Sept20:30in 4d
   Elche CF Real Madrid

   LAL

   Regular Season - 6
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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