V

Valencia

La Liga - Spain·20 of 20 in the table·1 points·Mestalla

Next match Sevilla v Valencia Fri 11 Sept, 20:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Valencia — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming4 Results held

Model Strength

63

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

3rd

of 19 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

4

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Fri 11 Sept20:00 Sevilla A — 4.50Smarkets — Sun 13 Sept20:00 Sevilla A — 3.25Sky Bet — Tue 15 Sept19:00 Alavés A — 4.10Matchbook —

Form

last 4

LLLD 1 pts from 4

H Barcelona 0–5 -1.1

A Deportivo La Coruna 1–3 -1.1

H Real Betis 0–1 -1.9

H Celta Vigo 0–0 -0.9

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (4 matches) Model expected (4 priced) Ahead Behind

-5.1 points against the model's expectation over the 4 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Expected goals against 0.93 #5 of 16

Weaknesses

Clean sheets 1 #14 of 20

Shots on target 2.8 #17 of 20

Shots faced 14.5 #17 of 20

Goals conceded 2.25 #18 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 0.25 #20 of 20

Expected goals 1.01 #10 of 16

Shots 9.8 #18 of 20

On target 2.8 #17 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 2.25 #18 of 20

Expected against 0.93 #5 of 16

Shots faced 14.5 #17 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #14 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

67%

Scored before half time

of 3 goals

0%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 3 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 3 goals

43%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 7 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 4 stored fixtures (10 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

LAL La Liga - Spain 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#20

Position

1

Points from 4 played

-8

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
18	Malaga	4	-6	2
19	Elche	4	-7	1
20	Valencia	4	-8	1

Valencia and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Fri 11 Sept20:00in 24m
   Sevilla Valencia

   LAL

   Regular Season - 5
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sun 13 Sept20:00in 2d
   Sevilla Valencia

   LAL
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Tue 15 Sept19:00in 4d
   Alavés Valencia

   LAL

   Regular Season - 6
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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