V

Villarreal

La Liga - Spain·8 of 20 in the table·12 points·Estadio de la Cerámica

Next match Villarreal v Espanyol Fri 30 Oct, 20:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Villarreal — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming10 Results held

Model Strength

76.2

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

8th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

10

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Fri 30 Oct20:00 Espanyol H — 1.53Casumo — Tue 3 Nov20:00 Paris Saint Germain H — 4.80Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 6

WDLWWL 10 pts from 6

A Valencia 2–1 +2.0

H Elche 0–0 -1.2

A Real Madrid 0–1 -0.6

H Levante 3–1 +0.8

A Malaga 3–1 +1.7

H Real Betis 1–2 -1.9

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (10 matches) Model expected (10 priced) Ahead Behind

-0.8 points against the model's expectation over the 10 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Possession 60.6% #2 of 20

Expected goals against 0.99 #4 of 20

Shots 16.5 #4 of 20

Shots on target 6 #4 of 20

Weaknesses

Points over model expectation -0.8 #14 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #16 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.5 #9 of 20

Expected goals 1.66 #5 of 20

Shots 16.5 #4 of 20

On target 6 #4 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.4 #9 of 20

Expected against 0.99 #4 of 20

Shots faced 11.7 #4 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #16 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

50%

Scored before half time

of 14 goals

29%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 14 goals

21%

From the penalty spot

of 14 goals

27%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 15 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 10 stored fixtures (29 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

LAL La Liga - Spain 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#8

Position

12

Points from 10 played

+1

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
6	Sevilla	9	-2	14
7	Alaves	10	3	12
8	Villarreal	10	1	12
9	Celta Vigo	9	3	11
10	Deportivo La Coruna	10	0	11

Villarreal and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Fri 30 Oct20:00in 4d
   Villarreal Espanyol

   LAL

   Regular Season - 11
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Tue 3 Nov20:00in 8d
   Villarreal Paris Saint Germain

   UCL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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