V

Villarreal

La Liga - Spain·17 of 20 in the table·2 points·Estadio de la Cerámica

Next match Villarreal v Real Betis Mon 14 Sept, 20:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Villarreal — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming4 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.9%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

18th

of 19 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

4

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Mon 14 Sept20:00 Real Betis H — 1.97Matchbook — Thu 17 Sept20:30 Málaga A — 2.10Grosvenor —

Form

last 4

LLDD 2 pts from 4

H Deportivo La Coruna 2–3 -1.8

A Alaves 0–1 —

A Atletico Madrid 2–2 +0.2

A Racing Santander 2–2 0.0

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (4 matches) Model expected (4 priced) Ahead Behind

-1.7 points against the model's expectation over the 4 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Possession 61.3% #2 of 20

Expected goals for 1.85 #3 of 16

Shots on target 6 #4 of 20

Shots 15 #5 of 20

Weaknesses

Shots faced 13.3 #14 of 20

Goals conceded 2 #17 of 20

Points over model expectation -1.7 #16 of 19

Clean sheets 0 #18 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.5 #11 of 20

Expected goals 1.85 #3 of 16

Shots 15 #5 of 20

On target 6 #4 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 2 #17 of 20

Expected against 1.15 #7 of 16

Shots faced 13.3 #14 of 20

Clean sheets 0 #18 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

60%

Scored before half time

of 5 goals

20%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 5 goals

40%

From the penalty spot

of 5 goals

44%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 9 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 4 stored fixtures (14 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

LAL La Liga - Spain 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#17

Position

2

Points from 4 played

-2

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
15	Getafe	4	-3	4
16	Celta Vigo	5	-3	3
17	Villarreal	4	-2	2
18	Malaga	4	-6	2
19	Elche	4	-7	1

Villarreal and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Mon 14 Sept20:00in 3d
   Villarreal Real Betis

   LAL
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Thu 17 Sept20:30in 6d
   Málaga Villarreal

   LAL

   Regular Season - 6
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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