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Today's intelligence — model vs market on every fixture in the snapshot. Research, not instructions.
📅 Tuesday 14 July
Filtered: showing only Liga MX (18 fixtures)
· clear filter
Liga MXSun 19 Jul, 02:00
M Monterrey v Santos Laguna SL
+5.1%
edge vs fair
19%
model probability
1X2 — Santos Laguna · best 5.80
strong value
Liga MXSun 19 Jul, 00:00
P Pumas v Pachuca P
-0.6%
edge vs fair
28%
model probability
1X2 — Draw · best 3.60
no edge
Liga MXSat 18 Jul, 04:00
FJ FC Juárez v Puebla P
-1.2%
edge vs fair
45%
model probability
1X2 — FC Juárez · best 1.72
no edge
Match intelligence
Monterrey v Santos Laguna
Liga MX · Sun 19 Jul, 02:00 UK
Model lean — 1X2
Monterrey
56%
model probability — uncertainty included by design
1.63
fair odds
1.55
best price
-4.7%
edge vs fair
Model probabilities
Market (fair, devigged · sharp)
Engine score — process gate
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
λ (exp. goals): 1.984 — 1.101
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 5 pts
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 5 pts
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 56.4% | 1.63 | 1.55 | -4.7% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 4.90 | 4.80 | -2.1% |
| Santos Laguna | 19.4% | 5.52 | 5.80 | +5% |
Sharp reference (raw): 1.54 / 4.65 / 5.23 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Monterrey
LWLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | A v Santos Laguna | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Puebla | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | H v Pachuca | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Atlas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Atl. San Luis | 1-2 | L |
Santos Laguna
WLLLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | H v Monterrey | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | A v Atl. San Luis | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Atlas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Pachuca | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Club America | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Santos Laguna v Monterrey | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-09-28 | Monterrey v Santos Laguna | 1-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-03-03 | Monterrey v Santos Laguna | 4-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-09-15 | Santos Laguna v Monterrey | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-01-22 | Santos Laguna v Monterrey | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-11-09 | Monterrey v Santos Laguna | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Engine score is a 0–100 process gate, not a certainty claim —
it ranks independent agreement (market shape, expected value, model, form). Channel selections appear as
FLAGGED; everything else is shown so you can judge what we didn't flag too.
Next up (12 of 18 — all matches →)
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model lean | Fair odds (1X2) | Best price (1X2) | Best edge | Engine score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa v Atlante FC
Liga MX |
Fri 17 Jul, 02:00 | Necaxa 61% | 1.98 / 3.95 / 4.13
sharp, devigged |
1.93 / 3.80 / 3.90 | -2.4% Necaxa |
— | |
| Tijuana v Tigres
Liga MX |
Fri 17 Jul, 04:00 | Tijuana 45% | 3.86 / 3.70 / 2.12
sharp, devigged |
3.65 / 3.60 / 2.08 | -2.1% Tigres |
— | |
| León v Atlas
Liga MX |
Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 | León 45% | 2.08 / 3.72 / 3.98
consensus, devigged |
1.96 / 3.50 / 3.75 | -5.9% León |
— | |
| Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul
Liga MX |
Sat 18 Jul, 02:00 | Atlético San Luis 45% | 4.18 / 3.92 / 1.98
sharp, devigged |
4.10 / 3.75 / 1.89 | -2% Atlético San Luis |
— | |
| FC Juárez v Puebla
Liga MX |
Sat 18 Jul, 04:00 | FC Juárez 45% | 1.74 / 4.31 / 5.18
sharp, devigged |
1.72 / 4.00 / 5.00 | -1.2% FC Juárez |
— | |
| Pumas v Pachuca
Liga MX |
Sun 19 Jul, 00:00 | Pumas 45% | 2.42 / 3.62 / 3.24
sharp, devigged |
2.30 / 3.60 / 3.05 | -0.6% Draw |
— | |
| Monterrey v Santos Laguna
Liga MX |
Sun 19 Jul, 02:00 | Monterrey 56% | 1.63 / 4.90 / 5.52
sharp, devigged |
1.55 / 4.80 / 5.80 | +5.1% Santos Laguna |
— | |
| Guadalajara v Toluca
Liga MX |
Sun 19 Jul, 02:07 | Guadalajara 45% | 2.34 / 3.69 / 3.32
sharp, devigged |
2.25 / 3.60 / 3.00 | -2.3% Draw |
— | |
| Querétaro v América
Liga MX |
Sun 19 Jul, 04:00 | Querétaro 45% | 3.94 / 3.73 / 2.09
sharp, devigged |
3.70 / 3.60 / 2.02 | -3.4% América |
— | |
| Cruz Azul v Puebla
Liga MX |
Wed 22 Jul, 02:00 | Cruz Azul 60% | 1.46 / 5.21 / 8.20
consensus, devigged |
1.33 / 4.75 / 7.50 | -8.7% Cruz Azul |
— | |
| Toluca v Pumas
Liga MX |
Wed 22 Jul, 04:00 | Toluca 45% | 1.77 / 4.24 / 5.03
consensus, devigged |
1.67 / 4.00 / 4.75 | -5.6% Toluca |
— | |
| Tigres v Atlético San Luis
Liga MX |
Sat 25 Jul, 02:00 | Tigres 45% | 1.47 / 5.13 / 8.06
consensus, devigged |
1.36 / 4.75 / 7.50 | -7.3% Tigres |
— |
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Market analysis
best price vs devigged fair line
| Market | Best | Fair | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 · Santos Laguna Monterrey v Santos Laguna |
5.80 | 5.52 | +5.1% | strong |
| 1X2 · Draw Pumas v Pachuca |
3.60 | 3.62 | -0.6% | — |
| 1X2 · FC Juárez FC Juárez v Puebla |
1.72 | 1.74 | -1.2% | — |
| 1X2 · Atlético San Luis Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul |
4.10 | 4.18 | -2% | — |
| 1X2 · Tigres Tijuana v Tigres |
2.08 | 2.12 | -2.1% | — |
| 1X2 · Draw Guadalajara v Toluca |
3.60 | 3.69 | -2.3% | — |
| 1X2 · Necaxa Necaxa v Atlante FC |
1.93 | 1.98 | -2.4% | — |
Odds movement
1X2 · Monterrey — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MonterreyFair line (devig) — Monterrey
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Closing-line value
the number we judge ourselves on
-0.25%
avg CLV · 53 flags
8/20
last 20 beat the close
Alerts
flags posted & closings captured — sign in for alerts
Closing captured — América Mineiro to Win 2.02 → 2.18 (-7.3% CLV)
07-13 08:00
Closing captured — Both Teams to Score 1.70 → 1.65 (+3% CLV)
07-12 10:00
Closing captured — Bodø/Glimt to Win 1.57 → 1.53 (+2.6% CLV)
07-12 09:00
Closing captured — Rosenborg to Win 1.66 → 1.62 (+2.5% CLV)
07-12 08:00
Our intelligence, your context — the process behind every number
Data-driven
A Dixon-Coles + ELO model rebuilt continuously from a growing archive of real results, blended with the market it is priced against.
AI-assisted, bounded
Grounded AI briefs explain the numbers and flag risks. Models never invent a price or a probability — the statistical engine and the market own the numbers.
Market-focused
Every idea is compared against the sharp line and devigged fair odds — value is measured, not asserted.
Logged & graded
Every prediction is timestamped and graded against the closing line. Wins and losses stay on the page.
Built for analysts
Signal-level transparency: see what each input contributes, its sample size, and whether it earns its keep.
Always improving
The model retrains on every finished match, and weak signals get demoted by evidence — not by opinion.