Ulsan Hyundai FC v Incheon United
1X2 · Ulsan Hyundai FCModel behind market recent
Market
2.00
price
50.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.22
fair price
45.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 45%model 45%
Model divergence +0 pts
Edge vs fair -10%
4 books priced
Model · 1X2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
45%
Draw
29%
Incheon United
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 45% / 28% / 27%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% against the market’s fair 45% — a +0 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Ulsan Hyundai FC 29% · Incheon United 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.00 | -10% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.56 | 3.20 | -10.1% |
| Incheon United | 26.1% | 3.72 | 3.35 | -9.9% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Draw | Incheon United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.35 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.35 |
| Casumo | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.35 |
| Grosvenor | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.35 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Ulsan Hyundai FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Ulsan Hyundai FCFair line (devig) — Ulsan Hyundai FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Ulsan Hyundai FC
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 3
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Jeonbuk Motors | 1-3 | L |
Incheon United
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v FC Anyang | 0-1 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More K League 1 fixtures
Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FCGangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FCIncheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai MotorsJeju United FC v Pohang SteelersBucheon FC 1995 v FC SeoulFC Anyang v Gwangju FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Ulsan Hyundai FC play Incheon United?
Kick-off is Tue 21 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for Ulsan Hyundai FC v Incheon United?
The statistical model prices Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45%, the draw at 29% and Incheon United at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Ulsan Hyundai FC v Incheon United?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.22 / 3.56 / 3.72 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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