Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest — EPL prediction, odds and analysis
EPL·Regular Season - 4·Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 UK·Villa Park, Birmingham· 18.1°C · 16.9 kph wind · 2 mm rainAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Aston VillavNottingham Forest
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00Aston Villa2.38Betfair
Draw3.50Betfred (UK)
Nottingham Forest3.35Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 21 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Villa Park, BirminghamKickoff weather: 18.1°C · rain 2 mm · wind 16.9 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WWDLLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.67 / 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | at Club Brugge KV (A) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-09-08 | at Club Brugge (A) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | at Hull City (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-08-31 | vs Arsenal (H) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-08-23 | at Brighton (A) | 0-4 | L |
DDLLWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.08 / 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 25% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | vs Tottenham (H) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-08-29 | at Liverpool (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-08-25 | vs Leeds (H) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-08-22 | vs Leeds (H) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-08-16 | vs Stade Brestois 29 (H) | 2-0 | W |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 17 | 1 | 3 | -5 | DLL |
| Nottingham Forest | 16 | 2 | 3 | -1 | DDL |
Aston Villa: 8 pts behind 1st · 1 pt above 20th
Nottingham Forest: 7 pts behind 1st · 2 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Aston Villa 4 wins1 drawNottingham Forest 1avg 4 goalsBTTS 100%Over 2.5 in 83%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Nottingham Forest FC v Aston Villa FC | 1-1 | Premier League |
| 2026-01-03 | Aston Villa FC v Nottingham Forest FC | 3-1 | Premier League |
| 2025-04-05 | Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 2024-12-14 | Nott'm Forest v Aston Villa | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 2024-02-24 | Aston Villa FC v Nottingham Forest FC | 4-2 | Premier League |
| 2024-02-24 | Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest | 4-2 | season-2324 |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Aston Villasnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| L. Bailey | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| T. Abraham | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| O. Watkins | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| E. Martinez | Missing Fixture | Finger Injury |
| A. Onana | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Joao Gomes | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Manzambi | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| B. Madjo | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| L. Bailey | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| T. Abraham | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| O. Watkins | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| E. Martinez | Missing Fixture | Finger Injury |
| A. Onana | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Joao Gomes | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Manzambi | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
Nottingham Forestsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| R. Yates | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| I. Sangare | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| N. Savona | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| R. Yates | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| I. Sangare | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| N. Savona | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| R. Yates | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| I. Sangare | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| N. Savona | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| R. Yates | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| I. Sangare | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| N. Savona | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| R. Yates | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| I. Sangare | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| N. Savona | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
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Frequently asked questions
When do Aston Villa play Nottingham Forest?
Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 UK time in the EPL.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.