Goiás v Sport Recife
1X2 · GoiásModel behind market recent
Market
2.25
price
44.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.40
fair price
41.6%
fair prob
Our model
1.61
model fair price
62.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 42%model 62%
Model divergence +20.6 pts
Edge vs fair -6.4%
4 books priced
Model · 1X2
Goiás
62%
Draw
27%
Sport Recife
10%
market fair (devig · consensus): 42% / 29% / 30%
Expected goals (λ)
1.56 — 0.5
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Goiás 62% against the market’s fair 42% — a +20.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.56–0.5 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 27.1°C · rain 0 mm · wind 6 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Goiás 39% · Sport Recife 4% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goiás | 62.2% | 2.40 | 2.25 | -6.4% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 3.47 | 3.25 | -6.4% |
| Sport Recife | 10.3% | 3.37 | 3.15 | -6.4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Goiás | Draw | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 2.12 | 3.05 | 2.95 |
| Grosvenor | 2.16 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.12 | 3.05 | 2.95 |
| Casumo | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Goiás — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — GoiásFair line (devig) — Goiás
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Goiás
DWWLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v CRB | 2-2 | D |
| 2023-12-06 | H v América FC | 1-0 | W |
| 2023-12-06 | H v America MG | 1-0 | W |
| 2023-12-03 | A v Fortaleza EC | 0-1 | L |
| 2023-11-30 | A v Grêmio FBPA | 1-2 | L |
Sport Recife
LLLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.67 / 2.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | H v Gremio | 0-4 | L |
| 2025-12-03 | A v Bahia | 0-2 | L |
| 2025-11-29 | A v Santos | 0-3 | L |
| 2025-11-23 | H v Vitoria | 1-3 | L |
| 2025-11-18 | A v Botafogo RJ | 2-3 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-26 | Goias v Sport Recife | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2020-09-07 | Sport Recife v Goias | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2015-09-10 | Goias v Sport Recife | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2015-06-05 | Sport Recife v Goias | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2014-10-23 | Sport Recife v Goias | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2014-07-20 | Goias v Sport Recife | 0-0 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PEAmérica Mineiro v CearáSão Bernardo v AvaiJuventude v CuiabáLondrina v BotafogoFortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
Frequently asked questions
When do Goiás play Sport Recife?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Goiás v Sport Recife?
The statistical model prices Goiás at 62%, the draw at 27% and Sport Recife at 10%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Goiás v Sport Recife?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.40 / 3.47 / 3.37 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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