Grêmio Novorizontino v Criciuma
1X2 · Grêmio NovorizontinoModel behind market recent
Market
2.35
price
42.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.52
fair price
39.7%
fair prob
Our model
1.61
model fair price
62.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 40%model 62%
Model divergence +22.5 pts
Edge vs fair -6.7%
4 books priced
Model · 1X2
Grêmio Novorizontino
62%
Draw
27%
Criciuma
10%
market fair (devig · consensus): 40% / 30% / 30%
Expected goals (λ)
1.56 — 0.5
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Grêmio Novorizontino 62% against the market’s fair 40% — a +22.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.56–0.5 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Grêmio Novorizontino 39% · Criciuma 4% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio Novorizontino | 62.2% | 2.52 | 2.35 | -6.7% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 3.32 | 3.10 | -6.7% |
| Criciuma | 10.3% | 3.32 | 3.10 | -6.7% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Grêmio Novorizontino | Draw | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 2.35 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Grosvenor | 2.25 | 2.95 | 3.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.20 | 2.88 | 2.90 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.20 | 2.88 | 2.90 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Grêmio Novorizontino — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Grêmio NovorizontinoFair line (devig) — Grêmio Novorizontino
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Grêmio Novorizontino
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Criciuma
LLLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | A v Bragantino | 1-5 | L |
| 2024-12-04 | H v Flamengo RJ | 0-3 | L |
| 2024-11-30 | H v Corinthians | 2-4 | L |
| 2024-11-26 | A v Fluminense | 0-0 | D |
| 2024-11-20 | H v Vitoria | 0-1 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PEAmérica Mineiro v CearáSão Bernardo v AvaiJuventude v CuiabáLondrina v BotafogoFortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
Frequently asked questions
When do Grêmio Novorizontino play Criciuma?
Kick-off is Tue 21 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Grêmio Novorizontino v Criciuma?
The statistical model prices Grêmio Novorizontino at 62%, the draw at 27% and Criciuma at 10%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Grêmio Novorizontino v Criciuma?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.52 / 3.32 / 3.32 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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