Derby County v Lincoln City
EFL1X2 · Derby CountyModel behind market recent
Market
1.83
price
54.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.93
fair price
51.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 52%model 47%
Model divergence -5.4 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Derby County
47%
Draw
28%
Lincoln City
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 52% / 22% / 26%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Derby County 47% against the market’s fair 52% — a -5.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Derby County 31% · Lincoln City 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County | 46.5% | 1.93 | 1.83 | -5% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 4.48 | 4.00 | -10.8% |
| Lincoln City | 25.2% | 3.88 | 4.40 | +13.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.12 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Derby County | Draw | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.73 | 3.60 | 3.75 |
| LeoVegas | 1.80 | 3.85 | 3.70 |
| Grosvenor | 1.60 | 3.95 | 4.40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.60 | 3.95 | 4.40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.60 | 3.95 | 4.40 |
| Casumo | 1.60 | 3.95 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.80 / 4.18 / 3.62 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Derby County — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Derby CountyFair line (devig) — Derby County
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Derby County
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Lincoln City
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Derby County play Lincoln City?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Derby County v Lincoln City?
The statistical model prices Derby County at 47%, the draw at 28% and Lincoln City at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Derby County v Lincoln City?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.93 / 4.48 / 3.88 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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