AIK v GAIS
1X2 · AIKModel behind market recent
Market
2.70
price
37.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.79
fair price
35.9%
fair prob
Our model
1.73
model fair price
57.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 36%model 58%
Model divergence +21.9 pts
Edge vs fair -3.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
AIK
58%
Draw
27%
GAIS
16%
market fair (devig · sharp): 36% / 27% / 38%
Expected goals (λ)
1.699 — 0.782
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices AIK 58% against the market’s fair 36% — a +21.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.699–0.782 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): AIK 39% · GAIS 8% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIK | 57.8% | 2.79 | 2.70 | -3.1% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 3.76 | 3.50 | -6.9% |
| GAIS | 15.5% | 2.67 | 2.64 | -1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.94 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | AIK | Draw | GAIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.33 |
| Casumo | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.43 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.33 |
| Grosvenor | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| LeoVegas | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.55 |
| Smarkets | 2.68 | 3.35 | 2.58 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Paddy Power | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Sky Bet | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.64 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.63 / 3.56 / 2.52 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · AIK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — AIKFair line (devig) — AIK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
AIK
LWDLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Sirius | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Hammarby | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Vasteras SK | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Djurgarden | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Elfsborg | 1-1 | D |
GAIS
WWLWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v IF Elfsborg | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-30 | H v Kalmar | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Sirius | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Hammarby | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Degerfors | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | AIK v GAIS | 1-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2025-03-31 | GAIS v AIK | 0-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2024-07-29 | AIK v GAIS | 0-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2024-07-22 | GAIS v AIK | 2-0 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2012-08-26 | GAIS v AIK | 0-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2012-05-24 | AIK v GAIS | 1-0 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Allsvenskan - Sweden fixtures
IFK Goteborg v IF BrommapojkarnaMjällby AIF v Västerås SKHalmstads BK v BK HackenHammarby IF v Degerfors IFIF Elfsborg v IK SiriusÖrgryte IS v Djurgardens IF
Frequently asked questions
When do AIK play GAIS?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 14:00 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for AIK v GAIS?
The statistical model prices AIK at 58%, the draw at 27% and GAIS at 16%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for AIK v GAIS?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.79 / 3.76 / 2.67 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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