IFK Goteborg v IF Brommapojkarna
1X2 · IFK GoteborgModel behind market recent
Market
1.97
price
50.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.02
fair price
49.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.23
model fair price
44.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 45%
Model divergence -4.5 pts
Edge vs fair -2.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IFK Goteborg
45%
Draw
28%
IF Brommapojkarna
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 25% / 26%
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices IFK Goteborg 45% against the market’s fair 49% — a -4.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.627–1.24 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Goteborg 31% · IF Brommapojkarna 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Goteborg | 44.9% | 2.02 | 1.97 | -2.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 4.02 | 3.95 | -1.6% |
| IF Brommapojkarna | 27.7% | 3.89 | 3.90 | +0.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.62 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | IFK Goteborg | Draw | IF Brommapojkarna |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 1.77 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Grosvenor | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Casumo | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.77 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| LeoVegas | 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| Smarkets | 1.96 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| Betway | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.83 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Bet Victor | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.91 / 3.79 / 3.67 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IFK Goteborg — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IFK GoteborgFair line (devig) — IFK Goteborg
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IFK Goteborg
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 4
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Malmo FF | 0-4 | L |
IF Brommapojkarna
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Sirius | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Allsvenskan - Sweden fixtures
Mjällby AIF v Västerås SKAIK v GAISHalmstads BK v BK HackenHammarby IF v Degerfors IFIF Elfsborg v IK SiriusÖrgryte IS v Djurgardens IF
Frequently asked questions
When do IFK Goteborg play IF Brommapojkarna?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for IFK Goteborg v IF Brommapojkarna?
The statistical model prices IFK Goteborg at 45%, the draw at 28% and IF Brommapojkarna at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for IFK Goteborg v IF Brommapojkarna?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.02 / 4.02 / 3.89 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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