IFK Goteborg v IF Brommapojkarna PREDICTION
AS Fri 17 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 3d
1X2 · IFK GoteborgModel behind market recent
Market
1.97
price
50.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.02
fair price
49.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.23
model fair price
44.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 45%
Model divergence -4.5 pts
Edge vs fair -2.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IFK Goteborg
45%
Draw
28%
IF Brommapojkarna
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 25% / 26%
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices IFK Goteborg 45% against the market’s fair 49% — a -4.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.627–1.24 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IFK Goteborg 31% · IF Brommapojkarna 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Allsvenskan - Sweden fixtures
Mjällby AIF v Västerås SKAIK v GAISHalmstads BK v BK HackenHammarby IF v Degerfors IFIF Elfsborg v IK SiriusÖrgryte IS v Djurgardens IF
Frequently asked questions
When do IFK Goteborg play IF Brommapojkarna?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for IFK Goteborg v IF Brommapojkarna?
The statistical model prices IFK Goteborg at 45%, the draw at 28% and IF Brommapojkarna at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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