Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK
1X2 · Mjällby AIFModel behind market recent
Market
1.86
price
53.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.92
fair price
52.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.23
model fair price
44.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 52%model 45%
Model divergence -7.2 pts
Edge vs fair -3.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Mjällby AIF
45%
Draw
28%
Västerås SK
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 52% / 23% / 25%
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Mjällby AIF 45% against the market’s fair 52% — a -7.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.627–1.24 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Mjällby AIF 31% · Västerås SK 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjällby AIF | 44.9% | 1.92 | 1.86 | -3.1% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 4.44 | 4.00 | -10% |
| Västerås SK | 27.7% | 3.94 | 4.25 | +7.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.63 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Mjällby AIF | Draw | Västerås SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grosvenor | 1.71 | 3.95 | 4.25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.64 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Casumo | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.64 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Smarkets | 1.84 | 3.95 | 4.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.75 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Sky Bet | 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.86 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Betway | 1.77 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.81 / 4.19 / 3.72 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Mjällby AIF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Mjällby AIFFair line (devig) — Mjällby AIF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Mjällby AIF
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v AIK Stockholm | 1-2 | L |
Västerås SK
LWDLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Goteborg | 4-5 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Malmo FF | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v AIK | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | H v GAIS | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Hammarby | 0-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Allsvenskan - Sweden fixtures
IFK Goteborg v IF BrommapojkarnaAIK v GAISHalmstads BK v BK HackenHammarby IF v Degerfors IFIF Elfsborg v IK SiriusÖrgryte IS v Djurgardens IF
Frequently asked questions
When do Mjällby AIF play Västerås SK?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK?
The statistical model prices Mjällby AIF at 45%, the draw at 28% and Västerås SK at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.92 / 4.44 / 3.94 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.