Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF
1X2 · Hammarby IFModel behind market recent
Market
1.29
price
77.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.36
fair price
73.8%
fair prob
Our model
1.38
model fair price
72.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 74%model 72%
Model divergence -1.5 pts
Edge vs fair -4.8%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Hammarby IF
72%
Draw
18%
Degerfors IF
10%
market fair (devig · sharp): 74% / 16% / 10%
Expected goals (λ)
2.516 — 0.847
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 2-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Hammarby IF 72% against the market’s fair 74% — a -1.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.516–0.847 (most likely 2-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Hammarby IF 58% · Degerfors IF 7% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby IF | 72.3% | 1.36 | 1.29 | -4.8% |
| Draw | 18.0% | 6.10 | 6.00 | -1.6% |
| Degerfors IF | 9.7% | 10.10 | 11.00 | +8.9% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Hammarby IF | Draw | Degerfors IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet | 1.19 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Casumo | 1.23 | 5.80 | 10.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.19 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.24 | 6.00 | 10.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.28 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.26 | 5.90 | 10.50 |
| Betway | 1.25 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.29 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.25 | 5.50 | 10.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.22 | 4.75 | 8.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.22 | 5.50 | 10.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.25 | 5.50 | 11.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.27 / 5.72 / 9.51 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Hammarby IF — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Hammarby IFFair line (devig) — Hammarby IF
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Hammarby IF
LLLWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.25 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Hacken | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | H v AIK | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | A v GAIS | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Malmo FF | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Goteborg | 1-0 | W |
Degerfors IF
LDLDLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Vasteras SK FK | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-31 | H v Brommapojkarna | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Kalmar | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v GAIS | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Mjallby | 1-4 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | Degerfors v Hammarby | 1-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2025-05-26 | Hammarby v Degerfors | 1-0 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2023-05-25 | Degerfors v Hammarby | 2-2 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2023-04-02 | Hammarby v Degerfors | 3-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2022-08-22 | Hammarby v Degerfors | 5-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
| 2022-04-21 | Degerfors v Hammarby | 0-1 | Sweden Allsvenskan |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Allsvenskan - Sweden fixtures
IFK Goteborg v IF BrommapojkarnaMjällby AIF v Västerås SKAIK v GAISHalmstads BK v BK HackenIF Elfsborg v IK SiriusÖrgryte IS v Djurgardens IF
Frequently asked questions
When do Hammarby IF play Degerfors IF?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 15:30 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF?
The statistical model prices Hammarby IF at 72%, the draw at 18% and Degerfors IF at 10%, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.36 / 6.10 / 10.10 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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