Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF PREDICTION
AS Sun 19 Jul, 15:30 UK · in 5d
1X2 · Hammarby IFModel behind market recent
Market
1.29
price
77.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.36
fair price
73.8%
fair prob
Our model
1.38
model fair price
72.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 74%model 72%
Model divergence -1.5 pts
Edge vs fair -4.8%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Hammarby IF
72%
Draw
18%
Degerfors IF
10%
market fair (devig · sharp): 74% / 16% / 10%
Expected goals (λ)
2.516 — 0.847
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 2-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Hammarby IF 72% against the market’s fair 74% — a -1.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.516–0.847 (most likely 2-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Hammarby IF 58% · Degerfors IF 7% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Hammarby IF play Degerfors IF?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 15:30 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Hammarby IF v Degerfors IF?
The statistical model prices Hammarby IF at 72%, the draw at 18% and Degerfors IF at 10%, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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