Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF
1X2 · Örgryte ISIdentified edge recent
Market
7.50
price
13.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
6.71
fair price
14.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.23
model fair price
44.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 15%model 45%
Model divergence +30 pts
Edge vs fair +11.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Örgryte IS
45%
Draw
28%
Djurgardens IF
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 15% / 19% / 66%
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Örgryte IS 45% against the market’s fair 15% — a +30 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.627–1.24 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Örgryte IS 31% · Djurgardens IF 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Örgryte IS | 44.9% | 6.71 | 7.50 | +11.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 5.32 | 5.10 | -4.1% |
| Djurgardens IF | 27.7% | 1.51 | 1.41 | -6.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Örgryte IS | Draw | Djurgardens IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 6.80 | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| LeoVegas | 6.30 | 4.95 | 1.40 |
| Betfred (UK) | 7.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
| Sky Bet | 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| Paddy Power | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.30 |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 5.10 | 1.41 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| 888sport | 6.50 | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| Betway | 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.38 |
| Virgin Bet | 6.75 | 4.60 | 1.32 |
| LiveScore Bet | 6.75 | 4.60 | 1.32 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 6.30 / 5.01 / 1.42 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Örgryte IS — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Örgryte ISFair line (devig) — Örgryte IS
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Örgryte IS
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 3
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v BK Hacken | 4-3 | W |
Djurgardens IF
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Halmstad | 3-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Allsvenskan - Sweden fixtures
IFK Goteborg v IF BrommapojkarnaMjällby AIF v Västerås SKAIK v GAISHalmstads BK v BK HackenHammarby IF v Degerfors IFIF Elfsborg v IK Sirius
Frequently asked questions
When do Örgryte IS play Djurgardens IF?
Kick-off is Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF?
The statistical model prices Örgryte IS at 45%, the draw at 28% and Djurgardens IF at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 6.71 / 5.32 / 1.51 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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