Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF PREDICTION
AS Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 6d
1X2 · Örgryte ISIdentified edge recent
Market
7.50
price
13.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
6.71
fair price
14.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.23
model fair price
44.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 15%model 45%
Model divergence +30 pts
Edge vs fair +11.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Örgryte IS
45%
Draw
28%
Djurgardens IF
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 15% / 19% / 66%
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Örgryte IS 45% against the market’s fair 15% — a +30 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.627–1.24 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Örgryte IS 31% · Djurgardens IF 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Örgryte IS play Djurgardens IF?
Kick-off is Mon 20 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Örgryte IS v Djurgardens IF?
The statistical model prices Örgryte IS at 45%, the draw at 28% and Djurgardens IF at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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