IF Elfsborg v IK Sirius
1X2 · IF ElfsborgModel behind market recent
Market
3.55
price
28.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.60
fair price
27.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.23
model fair price
44.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 28%model 45%
Model divergence +17.1 pts
Edge vs fair -1.3%
Confidence Medium
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IF Elfsborg
45%
Draw
28%
IK Sirius
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 28% / 26% / 46%
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
Medium confidence · 63/100
Model prices IF Elfsborg 45% against the market’s fair 28% — a +17.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.627–1.24 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IF Elfsborg 31% · IK Sirius 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg | 44.9% | 3.60 | 3.55 | -1.3% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 3.85 | 3.80 | -1.2% |
| IK Sirius | 27.7% | 2.16 | 2.04 | -5.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.20 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | IF Elfsborg | Draw | IK Sirius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet | 3.35 | 3.50 | 1.84 |
| Casumo | 3.50 | 3.65 | 1.89 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.35 | 3.50 | 1.84 |
| LeoVegas | 3.35 | 3.65 | 2.02 |
| Grosvenor | 3.55 | 3.70 | 1.92 |
| Smarkets | 3.25 | 3.65 | 2.02 |
| Betway | 3.20 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Paddy Power | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| Sky Bet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.35 | 3.70 | 2.04 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.39 / 3.63 / 2.04 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · IF Elfsborg — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — IF ElfsborgFair line (devig) — IF Elfsborg
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
IF Elfsborg
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Gais | 0-1 | L |
IK Sirius
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do IF Elfsborg play IK Sirius?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 15:30 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for IF Elfsborg v IK Sirius?
The statistical model prices IF Elfsborg at 45%, the draw at 28% and IK Sirius at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for IF Elfsborg v IK Sirius?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.60 / 3.85 / 2.16 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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