IF Elfsborg v IK Sirius PREDICTION
AS Sun 19 Jul, 15:30 UK · in 5d
1X2 · IF ElfsborgModel behind market recent
Market
3.55
price
28.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.60
fair price
27.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.23
model fair price
44.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 28%model 45%
Model divergence +17.1 pts
Edge vs fair -1.3%
Confidence Medium
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
IF Elfsborg
45%
Draw
28%
IK Sirius
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 28% / 26% / 46%
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
Medium confidence · 63/100
Model prices IF Elfsborg 45% against the market’s fair 28% — a +17.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.627–1.24 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): IF Elfsborg 31% · IK Sirius 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do IF Elfsborg play IK Sirius?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 15:30 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for IF Elfsborg v IK Sirius?
The statistical model prices IF Elfsborg at 45%, the draw at 28% and IK Sirius at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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