Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK PREDICTION
AS Fri 17 Jul, 18:00 UK · in 3d
1X2 · Mjällby AIFModel behind market recent
Market
1.86
price
53.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.92
fair price
52.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.23
model fair price
44.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 52%model 45%
Model divergence -7.2 pts
Edge vs fair -3.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Mjällby AIF
45%
Draw
28%
Västerås SK
28%
market fair (devig · sharp): 52% / 23% / 25%
Expected goals (λ)
1.627 — 1.24
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Mjällby AIF 45% against the market’s fair 52% — a -7.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.627–1.24 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Mjällby AIF 31% · Västerås SK 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Allsvenskan - Sweden fixtures
IFK Goteborg v IF BrommapojkarnaAIK v GAISHalmstads BK v BK HackenHammarby IF v Degerfors IFIF Elfsborg v IK SiriusÖrgryte IS v Djurgardens IF
Frequently asked questions
When do Mjällby AIF play Västerås SK?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for Mjällby AIF v Västerås SK?
The statistical model prices Mjällby AIF at 45%, the draw at 28% and Västerås SK at 28%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.