AIK v GAIS PREDICTION
AS Sat 18 Jul, 14:00 UK · in 4d
1X2 · AIKModel behind market recent
Market
2.70
price
37.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.79
fair price
35.9%
fair prob
Our model
1.73
model fair price
57.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 36%model 58%
Model divergence +21.9 pts
Edge vs fair -3.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
AIK
58%
Draw
27%
GAIS
16%
market fair (devig · sharp): 36% / 27% / 38%
Expected goals (λ)
1.699 — 0.782
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices AIK 58% against the market’s fair 36% — a +21.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.699–0.782 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): AIK 39% · GAIS 8% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do AIK play GAIS?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 14:00 UK time in the Allsvenskan - Sweden.
What does the model expect for AIK v GAIS?
The statistical model prices AIK at 58%, the draw at 27% and GAIS at 16%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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