Atletico Goianiense v Athletic Club (MG)
1X2 · Atletico GoianienseModel behind market recent
Market
1.90
price
52.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.03
fair price
49.3%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 68%
Model divergence +18.5 pts
Edge vs fair -6.3%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Atletico Goianiense
68%
Draw
25%
Athletic Club (MG)
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 29% / 22%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Atletico Goianiense 68% against the market’s fair 49% — a +18.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 26.5°C · rain 0 mm · wind 7.1 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atletico Goianiense 43% · Athletic Club (MG) 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense | 67.8% | 2.03 | 1.90 | -6.3% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.47 | 3.30 | -5% |
| Athletic Club (MG) | 7.3% | 4.57 | 4.20 | -8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.20 · Under: 1.62 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Atletico Goianiense | Draw | Athletic Club (MG) |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 1.79 | 3.10 | 3.85 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.79 | 3.10 | 3.85 |
| Grosvenor | 1.83 | 3.15 | 3.90 |
| Casumo | 1.88 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.88 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Betway | 1.88 | 3.25 | 4.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.85 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| Coral | 1.85 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.90 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.79 | 2.96 | 3.80 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.92 / 3.29 / 4.32 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atletico Goianiense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atletico GoianienseFair line (devig) — Atletico Goianiense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atletico Goianiense
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Fortaleza EC | 1-0 | W |
Athletic Club (MG)
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PEAmérica Mineiro v CearáSão Bernardo v AvaiJuventude v CuiabáLondrina v BotafogoFortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
Frequently asked questions
When do Atletico Goianiense play Athletic Club (MG)?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 22:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Atletico Goianiense v Athletic Club (MG)?
The statistical model prices Atletico Goianiense at 68%, the draw at 25% and Athletic Club (MG) at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Atletico Goianiense v Athletic Club (MG)?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.03 / 3.47 / 4.57 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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