Burton Albion v Blackburn Rovers
EFL1X2 · Burton AlbionEfficiently priced recent
Market
3.20
price
31.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.22
fair price
31.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 31%model 47%
Model divergence +15.4 pts
Edge vs fair -0.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Burton Albion
47%
Draw
28%
Blackburn Rovers
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 31% / 28% / 41%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Burton Albion 47% against the market’s fair 31% — a +15.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Burton Albion 31% · Blackburn Rovers 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 46.5% | 3.22 | 3.20 | -0.5% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.56 | 3.30 | -7.3% |
| Blackburn Rovers | 25.2% | 2.45 | 2.32 | -5.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.02 · Under: 1.73 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Burton Albion | Draw | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.15 | 2.96 | 2.32 |
| Sky Bet | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| BoyleSports | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.15 |
| LeoVegas | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Grosvenor | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.06 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.06 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.06 |
| Casumo | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| 888sport | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.02 / 3.34 / 2.30 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Burton Albion — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Burton AlbionFair line (devig) — Burton Albion
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Burton Albion
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Alfreton Town | 0-0 | D |
Blackburn Rovers
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Burton Albion play Blackburn Rovers?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Burton Albion v Blackburn Rovers?
The statistical model prices Burton Albion at 47%, the draw at 28% and Blackburn Rovers at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Burton Albion v Blackburn Rovers?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.22 / 3.56 / 2.45 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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