Club Bolívar v Grêmio
1X2 · Club BolívarModel behind market recent
Market
1.68
price
59.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.76
fair price
56.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 57%model 47%
Model divergence -10.3 pts
Edge vs fair -4.6%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Club Bolívar
47%
Draw
28%
Grêmio
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 57% / 23% / 20%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Club Bolívar 47% against the market’s fair 57% — a -10.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 15.7°C · rain 0 mm · wind 5.9 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Club Bolívar 31% · Grêmio 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Bolívar | 46.5% | 1.76 | 1.68 | -4.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 4.29 | 4.00 | -6.8% |
| Grêmio | 25.2% | 5.03 | 4.70 | -6.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.73 · Under: 2.12 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Club Bolívar | Draw | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet | 1.61 | 3.85 | 4.60 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.61 | 3.85 | 4.60 |
| LeoVegas | 1.65 | 3.95 | 4.35 |
| Casumo | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.68 | 3.65 | 4.40 |
| Smarkets | 1.66 | 2.52 | 2.92 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Coral | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.64 / 4.00 / 4.68 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Club Bolívar — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Club BolívarFair line (devig) — Club Bolívar
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Club Bolívar
LLDWDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | H v CS Independiente Rivadavia | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-19 | A v Fluminense FC | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-06 | A v Deportivo La Guaira FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-30 | H v Fluminense FC | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-04-15 | H v Deportivo La Guaira FC | 1-1 | D |
Grêmio
LWDLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | H v Corinthians | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Santos | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Bahia | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Flamengo RJ | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Athletico-PR | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Copa Sudamericana fixtures
Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BAUCV FC v SantosIndependiente Medellín v Vasco da GamaSporting Cristal v Bragantino-SPLanus v Club CiencianoBoca Juniors v O'Higgins
Frequently asked questions
When do Club Bolívar play Grêmio?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 23:00 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for Club Bolívar v Grêmio?
The statistical model prices Club Bolívar at 47%, the draw at 28% and Grêmio at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Club Bolívar v Grêmio?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.76 / 4.29 / 5.03 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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