UCV FC v Santos 
1X2 · UCV FCModel behind market recent
Market
4.00
price
25.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
4.46
fair price
22.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 22%model 47%
Model divergence +24.1 pts
Edge vs fair -10.4%
10 books priced
Model · 1X2
UCV FC
47%
Draw
28%
Santos
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 22% / 27% / 50%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices UCV FC 47% against the market’s fair 22% — a +24.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): UCV FC 31% · Santos 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCV FC | 46.5% | 4.46 | 4.00 | -10.4% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.66 | 3.50 | -4.4% |
| Santos | 25.2% | 1.99 | 1.89 | -4.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.05 · Under: 1.72 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | UCV FC | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 3.95 | 3.50 | 1.89 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.85 | 3.40 | 1.84 |
| LeoVegas | 3.85 | 3.40 | 1.85 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.85 | 3.40 | 1.84 |
| Sky Bet | 3.75 | 3.20 | 1.75 |
| Paddy Power | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| Coral | 3.75 | 3.25 | 1.83 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| 888sport | 3.90 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.83 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 4.17 / 3.43 / 1.86 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · UCV FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — UCV FCFair line (devig) — UCV FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
UCV FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
SantosWWLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Vitoria | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-30 | H v EC Vitória | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Grêmio FBPA | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Gremio | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Coritiba FBC | 0-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Copa Sudamericana fixtures
Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BAIndependiente Medellín v Vasco da GamaSporting Cristal v Bragantino-SPLanus v Club CiencianoClub Bolívar v GrêmioBoca Juniors v O'Higgins
Frequently asked questions
When do UCV FC play Santos?
Kick-off is Wed 22 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for UCV FC v Santos?
The statistical model prices UCV FC at 47%, the draw at 28% and Santos at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for UCV FC v Santos?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 4.46 / 3.66 / 1.99 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.