Boca Juniors v O'Higgins
1X2 · Boca JuniorsModel behind market recent
Market
1.26
price
79.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.35
fair price
74.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 74%model 47%
Model divergence -27.5 pts
Edge vs fair -6.8%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Boca Juniors
47%
Draw
28%
O'Higgins
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 74% / 18% / 8%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Boca Juniors 47% against the market’s fair 74% — a -27.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 10.1°C · rain 0 mm · wind 7.2 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Boca Juniors 30% · O'Higgins 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 46.5% | 1.35 | 1.26 | -6.8% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 5.71 | 5.30 | -7.3% |
| O'Higgins | 25.2% | 11.90 | 11.50 | -3.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.80 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Boca Juniors | Draw | O'Higgins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.22 | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.22 | 4.50 | 8.50 |
| Coral | 1.25 | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.20 | 4.50 | 8.80 |
| LeoVegas | 1.24 | 5.30 | 10.00 |
| 888sport | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.22 | 5.10 | 11.50 |
| Casumo | 1.26 | 5.30 | 11.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.22 | 5.10 | 11.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.26 / 5.32 / 11.05 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Boca Juniors — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Boca JuniorsFair line (devig) — Boca Juniors
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Boca Juniors
DWWWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 0.5
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | H v Huracan | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Central Cordoba | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-24 | A v Defensa y Justicia | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | A v River Plate | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-11 | H v Independiente | 1-1 | D |
O'Higgins
WLWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.6 / 1.4
Over 2.5 goals: 20% · Both teams scored: 20% · Clean sheets: 60%
Over 2.5 goals: 20% · Both teams scored: 20% · Clean sheets: 60%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Nublense | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-03-12 | A v CD Tolima | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-03-05 | H v CD Tolima | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-02-25 | A v EC Bahia | 5-5 | D |
| 2026-02-18 | H v EC Bahia | 1-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Copa Sudamericana fixtures
Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BAUCV FC v SantosIndependiente Medellín v Vasco da GamaSporting Cristal v Bragantino-SPLanus v Club CiencianoClub Bolívar v Grêmio
Frequently asked questions
When do Boca Juniors play O'Higgins?
Kick-off is Fri 24 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for Boca Juniors v O'Higgins?
The statistical model prices Boca Juniors at 47%, the draw at 28% and O'Higgins at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Boca Juniors v O'Higgins?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.35 / 5.71 / 11.90 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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