Lanus v Club Cienciano
1X2 · LanusModel behind market recent
Market
1.40
price
71.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.49
fair price
67.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 67%model 47%
Model divergence -20.7 pts
Edge vs fair -5.9%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Lanus
47%
Draw
28%
Club Cienciano
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 67% / 20% / 13%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Lanus 47% against the market’s fair 67% — a -20.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Lanus 31% · Club Cienciano 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 46.5% | 1.49 | 1.40 | -5.9% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 4.95 | 4.60 | -7.1% |
| Club Cienciano | 25.2% | 7.87 | 7.50 | -4.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.80 · Under: 1.97 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Lanus | Draw | Club Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.36 | 4.40 | 7.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.38 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.36 | 4.40 | 7.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.33 | 4.40 | 7.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33 | 4.00 | 6.25 |
| Coral | 1.36 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.33 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.38 / 4.60 / 7.32 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Lanus — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LanusFair line (devig) — Lanus
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Lanus
LDDLWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.75 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 17% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 17% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v Argentinos Jrs | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Dep. Riestra | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-24 | H v Central Cordoba | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-21 | A v Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-13 | H v Banfield | 1-0 | W |
Club Cienciano
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Copa Sudamericana fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Lanus play Club Cienciano?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for Lanus v Club Cienciano?
The statistical model prices Lanus at 47%, the draw at 28% and Club Cienciano at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Lanus v Club Cienciano?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.49 / 4.95 / 7.87 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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