Sporting Cristal v Bragantino-SP
1X2 · Sporting CristalPricing inefficiency recent
Market
3.45
price
29.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.38
fair price
29.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 30%model 47%
Model divergence +16.9 pts
Edge vs fair +2.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Sporting Cristal
47%
Draw
28%
Bragantino-SP
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 30% / 29% / 41%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Sporting Cristal 47% against the market’s fair 30% — a +16.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 20.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 18.5 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sporting Cristal 31% · Bragantino-SP 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 46.5% | 3.38 | 3.45 | +2.1% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.44 | 3.40 | -1.1% |
| Bragantino-SP | 25.2% | 2.42 | 2.30 | -5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.00 · Under: 1.80 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Sporting Cristal | Draw | Bragantino-SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 3.45 | 3.40 | 2.07 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.35 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| LeoVegas | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.35 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Coral | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Sky Bet | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.10 |
| Paddy Power | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| 888sport | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| Smarkets | 2.82 | 2.70 | 2.24 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.17 / 3.22 / 2.27 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sporting Cristal — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sporting CristalFair line (devig) — Sporting Cristal
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sporting Cristal
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Bentín Tacna Heroica | 1-1 | D |
Bragantino-SP
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Copa Sudamericana fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Sporting Cristal play Bragantino-SP?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for Sporting Cristal v Bragantino-SP?
The statistical model prices Sporting Cristal at 47%, the draw at 28% and Bragantino-SP at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Sporting Cristal v Bragantino-SP?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.38 / 3.44 / 2.42 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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