Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BA
1X2 · Nacional de MontevideoModel behind market recent
Market
2.04
price
49.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.15
fair price
46.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 47%model 47%
Model divergence -0.1 pts
Edge vs fair -4.9%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Nacional de Montevideo
47%
Draw
28%
CA Tigre BA
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 47% / 28% / 25%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Nacional de Montevideo 47% against the market’s fair 47% — a -0.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Nacional de Montevideo 32% · CA Tigre BA 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional de Montevideo | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.04 | -4.9% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.56 | 3.35 | -5.9% |
| CA Tigre BA | 25.2% | 3.95 | 3.85 | -2.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.30 · Under: 1.57 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Nacional de Montevideo | Draw | CA Tigre BA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 2.04 | 3.25 | 3.80 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.97 | 3.15 | 3.70 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.97 | 3.15 | 3.70 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.85 |
| Paddy Power | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Coral | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| Smarkets | 1.93 | 3.05 | 3.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.01 / 3.33 / 3.70 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Nacional de Montevideo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Nacional de MontevideoFair line (devig) — Nacional de Montevideo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Nacional de Montevideo
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
CA Tigre BA
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Nacional de Montevideo play CA Tigre BA?
Kick-off is Tue 21 Jul, 23:00 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BA?
The statistical model prices Nacional de Montevideo at 47%, the draw at 28% and CA Tigre BA at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BA?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.15 / 3.56 / 3.95 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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