Sporting Cristal v Bragantino-SP PREDICTION
CS Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 8d
1X2 · Sporting CristalPricing inefficiency recent
Market
3.45
price
29.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.38
fair price
29.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 30%model 47%
Model divergence +16.9 pts
Edge vs fair +2.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Sporting Cristal
47%
Draw
28%
Bragantino-SP
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 30% / 29% / 41%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Sporting Cristal 47% against the market’s fair 30% — a +16.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 20.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 18.5 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sporting Cristal 31% · Bragantino-SP 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Sporting Cristal play Bragantino-SP?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for Sporting Cristal v Bragantino-SP?
The statistical model prices Sporting Cristal at 47%, the draw at 28% and Bragantino-SP at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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