UCV FC v Santos 
PREDICTION
CS Wed 22 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 7d
1X2 · UCV FCModel behind market recent
Market
4.00
price
25.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
4.46
fair price
22.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 22%model 47%
Model divergence +24.1 pts
Edge vs fair -10.4%
10 books priced
Model · 1X2
UCV FC
47%
Draw
28%
Santos
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 22% / 27% / 50%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices UCV FC 47% against the market’s fair 22% — a +24.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): UCV FC 31% · Santos 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Copa Sudamericana fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do UCV FC play Santos?
Kick-off is Wed 22 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for UCV FC v Santos?
The statistical model prices UCV FC at 47%, the draw at 28% and Santos at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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