Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PE PREDICTION
BSB Fri 17 Jul, 00:00 UK · in 44h 44m
1X2 · Clube de Regatas BrasilModel behind market recent
Market
1.99
price
50.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.07
fair price
48.3%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 48%model 68%
Model divergence +19.5 pts
Edge vs fair -3.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Clube de Regatas Brasil
68%
Draw
25%
Nautico PE
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 48% / 30% / 22%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Clube de Regatas Brasil 68% against the market’s fair 48% — a +19.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Clube de Regatas Brasil 43% · Nautico PE 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
América Mineiro v CearáSão Bernardo v AvaiJuventude v CuiabáLondrina v BotafogoFortaleza v Grêmio NovorizontinoCriciuma v Vila Nova
Frequently asked questions
When do Clube de Regatas Brasil play Nautico PE?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 00:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PE?
The statistical model prices Clube de Regatas Brasil at 68%, the draw at 25% and Nautico PE at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.