Colorado Rapids v San Diego FC
MLS1X2 · San Diego FCModel behind market recent
Market
3.00
price
33.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
3.17
fair price
31.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.46
model fair price
40.7%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 32%model 41%
Model divergence +9.2 pts
Edge vs fair -5.5%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Colorado Rapids
33%
Draw
27%
San Diego FC
41%
market fair (devig · consensus): 45% / 24% / 32%
Expected goals (λ)
1.472 — 1.656
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices San Diego FC 41% against the market’s fair 32% — a +9.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.472–1.656 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Colorado Rapids 24% · San Diego FC 30% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 32.8% | 2.23 | 2.10 | -5.7% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 4.24 | 4.00 | -5.6% |
| San Diego FC | 40.7% | 3.17 | 3.00 | -5.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Colorado Rapids | Draw | San Diego FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 2.00 | 3.65 | 2.95 |
| 888sport | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Paddy Power | 2.05 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.94 | 3.40 | 2.84 |
| Sky Bet | 2.00 | 3.75 | 2.80 |
| Bet Victor | 2.05 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.05 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| Coral | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · San Diego FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — San Diego FCFair line (devig) — San Diego FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Colorado Rapids
LLWLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v FC Dallas | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Real Salt Lake | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v Minnesota United | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v St. Louis City | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Houston Dynamo | 0-1 | L |
San Diego FC
LDWDDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.83 / 2.25
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | H v FC Cincinnati | 3-3 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Austin FC | 5-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Seattle Sounders | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Los Angeles FC | 2-2 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-15 | San Diego FC v Colorado Rapids | 2-0 | USA MLS |
| 2025-04-13 | Colorado Rapids v San Diego FC | 3-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Colorado Rapids play San Diego FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 02:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Colorado Rapids v San Diego FC?
The statistical model prices Colorado Rapids at 33%, the draw at 27% and San Diego FC at 41%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Colorado Rapids v San Diego FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.23 / 4.24 / 3.17 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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