Deportivo Riestra v Boca Juniors
PDA1X2 · Deportivo RiestraModel behind market recent
Market
4.33
price
23.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
4.63
fair price
21.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 22%model 43%
Model divergence +21.7 pts
Edge vs fair -6.5%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Deportivo Riestra
43%
Draw
32%
Boca Juniors
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 22% / 32% / 47%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Deportivo Riestra 43% against the market’s fair 22% — a +21.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Deportivo Riestra 25% · Boca Juniors 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 43.3% | 4.63 | 4.33 | -6.5% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.15 | 2.90 | -8.1% |
| Boca Juniors | 25.2% | 2.14 | 2.05 | -4.3% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Deportivo Riestra | Draw | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 3.75 | 2.70 | 1.95 |
| Paddy Power | 4.00 | 2.80 | 1.95 |
| BoyleSports | 4.20 | 2.88 | 2.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 4.33 | 2.90 | 2.05 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.20 | 2.88 | 1.93 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.20 | 2.88 | 1.93 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 4.41 / 3.00 / 2.04 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Deportivo Riestra — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Deportivo RiestraFair line (devig) — Deportivo Riestra
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Deportivo Riestra
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Boca Juniors
DWWWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 0.5
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | H v Huracan | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Central Cordoba | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-24 | A v Defensa y Justicia | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | A v River Plate | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-11 | H v Independiente | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Argentina fixtures
Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos JuniorsBelgrano de Cordoba v Rosario CentralDefensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del PlataGimnasia Mendoza v Central CórdobaRacing Club v Gimnasia La PlataVelez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba
Frequently asked questions
When do Deportivo Riestra play Boca Juniors?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Deportivo Riestra v Boca Juniors?
The statistical model prices Deportivo Riestra at 43%, the draw at 32% and Boca Juniors at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Deportivo Riestra v Boca Juniors?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 4.63 / 3.15 / 2.14 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.