Estudiantes v Independiente
PDA1X2 · EstudiantesModel behind market recent
Market
2.15
price
46.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.28
fair price
43.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 44%model 43%
Model divergence -0.6 pts
Edge vs fair -5.6%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Estudiantes
43%
Draw
32%
Independiente
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 44% / 32% / 24%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Estudiantes 43% against the market’s fair 44% — a -0.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 8.8°C · rain 0 mm · wind 7.7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Estudiantes 26% · Independiente 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes | 43.3% | 2.28 | 2.15 | -5.6% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.14 | 2.90 | -7.8% |
| Independiente | 25.2% | 4.12 | 3.80 | -7.7% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Estudiantes | Draw | Independiente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.10 | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| Sky Bet | 2.05 | 2.70 | 3.40 |
| BoyleSports | 2.05 | 2.88 | 3.80 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.07 | 2.90 | 3.65 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.07 | 2.90 | 3.65 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.17 / 3.00 / 3.92 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Estudiantes — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — EstudiantesFair line (devig) — Estudiantes
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Estudiantes
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Independiente
LWLWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v Rosario Central | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | A v San Lorenzo | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-24 | A v Dep. Riestra | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-04-18 | H v Defensa y Justicia | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-04-11 | A v Boca Juniors | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Argentina fixtures
Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos JuniorsBelgrano de Cordoba v Rosario CentralDefensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del PlataGimnasia Mendoza v Central CórdobaRacing Club v Gimnasia La PlataVelez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba
Frequently asked questions
When do Estudiantes play Independiente?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 21:15 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Estudiantes v Independiente?
The statistical model prices Estudiantes at 43%, the draw at 32% and Independiente at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Estudiantes v Independiente?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.28 / 3.14 / 4.12 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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