FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS1X2 · FC CincinnatiModel behind market recent
Market
3.40
price
29.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
3.62
fair price
27.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.25
model fair price
44.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 28%model 45%
Model divergence +16.9 pts
Edge vs fair -6.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC Cincinnati
45%
Draw
27%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
29%
market fair (devig · consensus): 28% / 22% / 51%
Expected goals (λ)
1.692 — 1.328
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC Cincinnati 45% against the market’s fair 28% — a +16.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.692–1.328 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Cincinnati 32% · Vancouver Whitecaps FC 20% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 44.5% | 3.62 | 3.40 | -6.2% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 4.61 | 4.33 | -6% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 28.8% | 1.97 | 1.85 | -6.2% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | FC Cincinnati | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 3.25 | 3.95 | 1.83 |
| Sky Bet | 3.10 | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| Paddy Power | 3.30 | 4.33 | 1.85 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.30 | 4.33 | 1.85 |
| 888sport | 3.40 | 3.75 | 1.85 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.75 | 1.85 |
| Bet Victor | 3.30 | 4.00 | 1.83 |
| Betano (UK) | 3.30 | 4.00 | 1.83 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.10 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Coral | 3.10 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.25 | 4.20 | 1.83 |
| Smarkets | 3.10 | 3.65 | 1.76 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Cincinnati — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC CincinnatiFair line (devig) — FC Cincinnati
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Cincinnati
WDLDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.83 / 2.92
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 83% · Both teams scored: 92% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Orlando City | 6-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v San Diego FC | 3-3 | D |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Inter Miami | 3-5 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Charlotte | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Chicago Fire | 3-2 | W |
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
WLWDDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.5 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | A v San Diego FC | 4-2 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Houston Dynamo | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v FC Dallas | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Los Angeles Galaxy | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | Vancouver Whitecaps v FC Cincinnati | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2022-07-14 | FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-2 | USA MLS |
| 2019-08-04 | FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-2 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do FC Cincinnati play Vancouver Whitecaps FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 00:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps FC?
The statistical model prices FC Cincinnati at 45%, the draw at 27% and Vancouver Whitecaps FC at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.62 / 4.61 / 1.97 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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