Grimsby Town v Blackpool
EFL1X2 · Grimsby TownModel behind market recent
Market
2.70
price
37.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.75
fair price
36.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 36%model 47%
Model divergence +10.2 pts
Edge vs fair -2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Grimsby Town
47%
Draw
28%
Blackpool
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 36% / 28% / 36%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Grimsby Town 47% against the market’s fair 36% — a +10.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Grimsby Town 32% · Blackpool 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby Town | 46.5% | 2.75 | 2.70 | -2% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.60 | 3.50 | -2.7% |
| Blackpool | 25.2% | 2.78 | 2.62 | -5.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.85 · Under: 1.91 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Grimsby Town | Draw | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.54 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| Sky Bet | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| BoyleSports | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| LeoVegas | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Grosvenor | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.23 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.23 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.23 |
| Casumo | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.59 / 3.38 / 2.61 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Grimsby Town — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Grimsby TownFair line (devig) — Grimsby Town
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Grimsby Town
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Blackpool
WLWDDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 2.42
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v AFC Fylde | 3-2 | W |
| 2011-05-22 | A v Man United | 2-4 | L |
| 2011-05-14 | H v Bolton | 4-3 | W |
| 2011-05-07 | A v Tottenham | 1-1 | D |
| 2011-04-30 | H v Stoke | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Grimsby Town play Blackpool?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Grimsby Town v Blackpool?
The statistical model prices Grimsby Town at 47%, the draw at 28% and Blackpool at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Grimsby Town v Blackpool?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.75 / 3.60 / 2.78 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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