HamKam v Tromso
EN1X2 · HamKamModel behind market recent
Market
3.55
price
28.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.85
fair price
26.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.23
model fair price
44.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 26%model 45%
Model divergence +18.8 pts
Edge vs fair -7.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
HamKam
45%
Draw
28%
Tromso
27%
market fair (devig · sharp): 26% / 31% / 43%
Expected goals (λ)
1.54 — 1.146
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices HamKam 45% against the market’s fair 26% — a +18.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.54–1.146 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): HamKam 30% · Tromso 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam | 44.8% | 3.85 | 3.55 | -7.7% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 3.25 | 3.30 | +1.6% |
| Tromso | 26.8% | 2.32 | 2.15 | -7.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.05 · Under: 1.72 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | HamKam | Draw | Tromso |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 3.30 | 3.15 | 2.10 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
| Smarkets | 3.40 | 2.88 | 2.12 |
| Betway | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| Sky Bet | 3.10 | 3.00 | 1.95 |
| Paddy Power | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.45 | 2.90 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| Bet Victor | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Betano (UK) | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.66 / 3.09 / 2.21 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · HamKam — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — HamKamFair line (devig) — HamKam
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
HamKam
DWLWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.92 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | A v Aalesund | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-25 | H v Lillestrom | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Fredrikstad | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-08 | H v Valerenga | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-03 | A v Kristiansund | 1-1 | D |
Tromso
WDDLWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 58%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 58%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Valerenga | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-05-29 | A v KFUM Oslo | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-05-25 | H v Aalesund | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Bodo/Glimt | 0-5 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Molde | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | Tromso v HamKam | 1-0 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2025-06-22 | HamKam v Tromso | 1-3 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2024-11-03 | Tromso v HamKam | 3-3 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2024-07-07 | HamKam v Tromso | 0-0 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2023-09-17 | Tromso v HamKam | 2-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Eliteserien - Norway fixtures
Vålerenga v AalesundBodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FKIK Start v RosenborgLillestrom v KFUMKristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FKMolde v SK Brann
Frequently asked questions
When do HamKam play Tromso?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 13:00 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for HamKam v Tromso?
The statistical model prices HamKam at 45%, the draw at 28% and Tromso at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for HamKam v Tromso?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.85 / 3.25 / 2.32 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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