Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK
EN1X2 · Bodø/GlimtModel behind market recent
Market
1.18
price
84.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.22
fair price
82.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.07
model fair price
48.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 82%model 48%
Model divergence -33.7 pts
Edge vs fair -3.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Bodø/Glimt
48%
Draw
26%
Fredrikstad FK
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 82% / 11% / 7%
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Bodø/Glimt 48% against the market’s fair 82% — a -33.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.793–1.267 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Bodø/Glimt 35% · Fredrikstad FK 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø/Glimt | 48.3% | 1.22 | 1.18 | -3.2% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 9.35 | 9.00 | -3.7% |
| Fredrikstad FK | 25.7% | 13.70 | 15.00 | +9.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Bodø/Glimt | Draw | Fredrikstad FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK) | 1.16 | 7.50 | 14.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.14 | 7.40 | 11.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.18 | 8.60 | 14.99 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.17 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Betway | 1.15 | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.13 | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.12 | 7.50 | 14.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.15 | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| William Hill | 1.15 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.13 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.13 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.15 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.16 / 8.86 / 13.07 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Bodø/Glimt — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Bodø/GlimtFair line (devig) — Bodø/Glimt
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Bodø/Glimt
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Fredrikstad FK
LWDWLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Lillestrom | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-29 | H v Start | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-25 | A v Sandefjord | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | H v HamKam | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Sarpsborg 08 | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Eliteserien - Norway fixtures
Vålerenga v AalesundHamKam v TromsoIK Start v RosenborgLillestrom v KFUMKristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FKMolde v SK Brann
Frequently asked questions
When do Bodø/Glimt play Fredrikstad FK?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 18:15 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK?
The statistical model prices Bodø/Glimt at 48%, the draw at 26% and Fredrikstad FK at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.22 / 9.35 / 13.70 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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