Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK PREDICTION
EN Fri 17 Jul, 18:15 UK · in 3d1X2 · Bodø/GlimtModel behind market recent
Market
1.18
price
84.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.22
fair price
82.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.07
model fair price
48.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 82%model 48%
Model divergence -33.7 pts
Edge vs fair -3.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Bodø/Glimt
48%
Draw
26%
Fredrikstad FK
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 82% / 11% / 7%
Expected goals (λ)
1.793 — 1.267
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Bodø/Glimt 48% against the market’s fair 82% — a -33.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.793–1.267 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Bodø/Glimt 35% · Fredrikstad FK 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Bodø/Glimt play Fredrikstad FK?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 18:15 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FK?
The statistical model prices Bodø/Glimt at 48%, the draw at 26% and Fredrikstad FK at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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