Vålerenga v Aalesund 
EN1X2 · VålerengaModel behind market recent
Market
1.74
price
57.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.82
fair price
55.0%
fair prob
Our model
1.65
model fair price
60.7%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 55%model 61%
Model divergence +5.7 pts
Edge vs fair -4.3%
Confidence High
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Vålerenga
61%
Draw
22%
Aalesund
17%
market fair (devig · sharp): 55% / 22% / 23%
Expected goals (λ)
2.177 — 1.086
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
High confidence · 81/100
Model prices Vålerenga 61% against the market’s fair 55% — a +5.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.177–1.086 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Venue: Intility Arena, Oslo
Referee: D. Higraff
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Vålerenga 47% · Aalesund 12% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vålerenga | 60.7% | 1.82 | 1.74 | -4.3% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 4.50 | 4.20 | -6.8% |
| Aalesund | 16.9% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.3% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Vålerenga | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK) | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Smarkets | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.70 | 4.05 | 3.95 |
| Betway | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.74 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.73 / 4.29 / 4.17 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Vålerenga — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — VålerengaFair line (devig) — Vålerenga
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
VålerengaLWLWLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Tromso | 0-4 | L |
| 2026-05-29 | H v Kristiansund | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-25 | A v Start | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Sarpsborg 08 | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-08 | A v HamKam | 0-1 | L |
AalesundDDDWWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Molde | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-29 | H v HamKam | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-25 | A v Tromso | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Brann | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Rosenborg | 3-2 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-17 | Valerenga v Aalesund | 3-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2023-04-10 | Aalesund v Valerenga | 0-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2022-08-07 | Valerenga v Aalesund | 4-0 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2022-06-19 | Aalesund v Valerenga | 2-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2020-11-21 | Aalesund v Valerenga | 1-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2020-07-04 | Valerenga v Aalesund | 2-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Eliteserien - Norway fixtures
Bodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FKHamKam v TromsoIK Start v RosenborgLillestrom v KFUMKristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FKMolde v SK Brann
Frequently asked questions
When do Vålerenga play Aalesund?
Kick-off is Thu 16 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for Vålerenga v Aalesund?
The statistical model prices Vålerenga at 61%, the draw at 22% and Aalesund at 17%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Vålerenga v Aalesund?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.82 / 4.50 / 4.39 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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